Downtime and ramp-back modelling for short-term rentals
How downtime and ramp-back modelling works for short-term rental properties — repair periods, relisting, occupancy recovery, and mitigation.
When guest damage, renovation delays, or regulatory shutdowns stop STR trading, the loss period rarely ends the day keys are handed back. Ramp-back modelling addresses how quickly occupancy and average daily rate recover to pre-incident levels.
Downtime analysis should distinguish mandatory repair periods from periods where the property could reasonably have been relisted. Mitigation evidence — contractor schedules, platform calendar blocks, and management correspondence — is often central.
Ramp-back curves may reflect seasonality (e.g. recovering before a peak period versus a quiet month), listing ranking effects after suspension, and marketing or repricing decisions. Sensitivity analysis (best, base, worst) can help where facts are disputed.
STR Disputes uses transparent methodology and structured exhibits so downtime and ramp-back assumptions can be scrutinised in settlement or proceedings.